Israeli Startups Rejoice – The Dollar is back!
Last week, in the shadows of the falling stock markets, falling economies, and the overall constant competition for the "most pessimistic" medal, The US Dollar crossed the line of 4 Israeli shekels per dollar, for the first time in over a year. This is a 20% rise in the dollar since the summer (Check below the V-shaped graph of the dollar/shekel exchange rate as it changed in the past year).
Just a few months ago, the experts predicted that the dollar will crash completely (Read Globes here, in Hebrew – sorry). Globes had a real bad timing with that prediction; Michael Eisenberg was much more on track with his January blog here. But the graph below shows that the experts know very little, and relying on them can be quite costly. In addition, it shows that the exchange rate is extremely volatile, and can easily drift from highs to lows and back to highs. So, what can a CEO do?
I think the message is quite simple. The CEO (or the VCs) should not try and optimize on the exchange rate. When you get a new injection of capital (It will happen, even in 2009…), the best thing to do is to convert dollars to shekels based on the planned expense budget for the upcoming year. No hedging, no betting, just a simple conversion based on future capital needs. If the exchange rate goes down, you made a profit. If it went up, you left money on the table. But the most important – you used the capital you in the safest, most predictable way.
Beyond that, let's enjoy the good news, as we just found a new way to reduce burn rate: Pay less for Shekels, pay less for gas (oil).



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